Interest rate cut for first time since 2020: here’s what it could mean for mortgages
Adapted from a Rightmove Property News article 1 August 2024
The Bank of England (BoE) has announced it will reduce the Base Rate to 5% this month, a reduction of 0.25%, and the first cut in four years. The Base Rate had been held at 5.25% since August 2023, after 14 consecutive rises.
The Bank had been raising, and holding, rates to tackle high levels of inflation, which was in excess of 10% in early 2023 – way above the government target of 2%. It was announced in June that inflation had fallen back to its target of 2%, and inflation remained at the same level in July.
What’s happened to mortgage rates recently?
Back in January, we saw an unexpected rise in inflation, which resulted in mortgage rates edging up throughout the spring. But off the back of positive inflation news over the last few months, which saw inflation return to its 2% target, we’ve seen more settled mortgage rates.
Off the back of the certainty brought by a new government, and mortgage lenders competing for new business, we’ve seen mortgage rate drops gather pace in the last couple of weeks. In fact, we saw the arrival of the first sub 4% rate seen for many months for borrowers with larger deposits, and we can expect more lenders to follow suit in the coming weeks.
The average 5-year fixed rate is down from 6.08% in July 2023, to 4.87% this week, and the average 2-year fixed rate is down from 6.61% in July, to 5.25%.
What do the experts think?
Rightmove’s mortgage expert, Matt Smith, says: “The highly anticipated Base Rate cut has finally arrived, and while those looking to take out a mortgage soon shouldn’t expect to see drastically lower mortgage rates, we would expect the downward trend we’ve started to see continue. This sets us up for hopefully further cuts to come, and when we have seen further reductions to the Base Rate, people should really start to see the impact. However, it’s important to keep in mind that mortgage rates are widely expected to eventually settle at higher levels than previously, with the market view that Base Rate may eventually fall to about 3.25%.”
What does the Base Rate reduction mean for my current mortgage?
Changes to the Bank’s Base Rate can impact how much interest you’ll pay on loans, including mortgages. If you’re on a fixed-rate deal, your monthly payments won’t change until the end of your deal. And if you’re on a tracker mortgage, or a variable rate mortgage that follows Base Rate changes, this month’s Base Rate reduction will mean your monthly payments will take on this drop.
If you’re coming to the end of your fixed-rate mortgage soon, you’ve probably already started to think about the rate you’ll be offered on your next deal.
What could the Base Rate reduction mean for affordability?
Lenders’ ‘stress test’ calculations – which is how they calculate whether someone could afford a mortgage were their repayments to jump considerably – are directly linked to the Standard Variable Rates that we just talked about above.
The ‘stressed rate’ is usully the lender’s SVR, with at least 1% added on top. So, if lenders’ SVRs reduce in line with this Base Rate cut, we might start to see affordability improve, because the stressed amount will now be lower than if Base Rate was at 5.25%.
Will interest rates drop further?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets every six weeks to discuss and vote on whether interest rates should go up or down, or stay the same.
History has shown thaafter interest rates have increased over time, they have remained flat before starting to come down. So while we’re now seeing the beginning of the downward curve, it’s extremely unlikely that rates will drop back to the historic lows we saw back in 2021.
Right now, it’s looking more likely that, barring any shocks to the wider economy, the Base Rate will continue to edge downwards for the rest of the year and into 2025 – the market is currently forecasting one more rate cut of 0.25% by the end of the year. Though as always, this could change depending on what happens in the broader economic environment. The next decision on interest rates will be announced at 12pm on 19 September 2024.
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